With a current market share of 46%, will Toyota gain 50% with the new Tamaraw?

It’s amazing when you consider that when the Chinese car brands started entering the Philippine market in 2018—an onslaught that continues today and has since decimated the market shares of almost every automotive brand in the country—Toyota’s market share actually went up from 39.5 percent at the end of 2019 to the current 46.7 percent.

The shift in numbers seem to underscore the glaring division between consumers who are eager to enjoy the abundance of features and relatively low prices offered by the newcomers and those who, in turn, embrace the proven reliability of what is one of the most trusted brands in the world.

At last Friday’s annual media thanksgiving hosted by Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP) at Grand Hyatt Manila, TMP Chairman Alfred Ty shared the industry’s projections of 512,000 units to be sold this year, up from the 476,252 units sold in 2024.

The 2025 total sales projection amount to average sales of 42,666 units a month for all car brands combined. For Toyota to own 50 percent market share, they will have to sell 21,333 vehicles a month. Based on 2024 total sales and its 46.7 percent market share, TMP sold an average of 18,144 vehicles a month. That means they will need to sell 3,189 more cars per month this year compared to last year. 

Toyota officials have projected average Tamaraw sales this year to be 1,500 to 1,800 units per month. Of course, one can’t just tack on these numbers to last year’s monthly average, as the Tamaraw could conceivably cannibalize sales of the entry-level Hilux pickup and, more to the point, the Liteace commercial vehicle. 

Still the numbers the Tamaraw will add to TMP’s sales figures are formidable. Assuming minimal cannibalization among its sister models, the Tamaraw could boost Toyota’s market share from the current 46.7 percent to 50.1 percent. That’s factoring in last year’s 18,144 units per month PLUS the eight percent industry growth (which Toyota usually outpaces) PLUS the maximum 1,800 units a month that the Tamaraw will add—for my own projections of 21,395 average monthly sales for the market leader). That 21,395 monthly sales will enable TMP to own half of the market this year.

It really should be no surprise, considering TMP sunk in a whopping P5.5 billion to ramp up Tamaraw production in its Sta. Rosa plant. And that’s actually the conservative scenario. Considering commercial vehicles sell way more than passenger cars in the Philippines (by as much as a 70:30 ratio), it’s not inconceivable for the Tamaraw to match or even overtake sales of the bestselling Vios in the coming years (but certainly not this year). And know this: while current Tamaraw production is set for 20,000 units for this year, TMP has set up the Tamaraw plant to produce as much as 60,000 units per year if demand is there (not just locally but also for export). For perspective, the Vios has a 50,000-unit annual production. 

Now imagine if the government grants the Tamaraw fiscal incentives similar to what the Vios is enjoying now under the CARS program. To date, only 25 percent of the Tamaraw comes from locally produced components. The majority still comes from Thailand. But this could change with government support for automotive parts suppliers. And if this happens, prices of the Tamaraw would go down. And you know what that will do for sales. (But those government incentives probably won’t happen in the immediate future.)             

The Tamaraw comes in three basic body styles: utility van, aluminum van, and dropside pickup. It’s the utility van that is expected to be in highest demand. Yet another advantage of TMP is that the Tamaraw body conversion is done inhouse, further saving costs, improving the selling price, and increasing profit margins for the 74 Toyota dealers nationwide. Speaking of conversions, the Tamaraw, judging from its recent mall and motor show appearances, promises to offer almost unlimited aftermarket modification and modification potential. The market is truly going to have fun with this model.    

And all this without even taking into account further disruptive events like a new Fortuner or more stocks of Alphard, Hiace and Land Cruisers. Toyota is one of the most prolific brands in terms of new model introductions year after year, so we can expect new models to stimulate demand even further. Plus it’s election year.. 

A 50-percent market share by one car brand is pretty much unprecedented, not just in this country, but in every country where cars are sold—a solid testament to Filipinos’ more-than-half-a-century-old love affair with Toyota.